Training Examples

Training Examples

Basic Training Scenarios

Basic Training Scenarios introduce students to new concepts in actuarial science and risk analysis. While many concepts in the Modeling the Future Challenge will be familiar, particularly the statistics and probability used to create mathematical models and project future trends, some will be new. Each Basic Training Scenario covers a particular concept relating to insurance, data analysis, and risk management that students may not have received in traditional classrooms. Check out these scenarios to gain a  stronger foundation upon which you can build your Modeling the Future projects. 

This basic training scenario provides a simplified way to understand several insurance and risk analysis concepts including: premiums, deductibles and co-pays, and risk quantification. The scenario does not use a separate data file, but provides simplified data internally in the materials. The scenario can also be used to introduce students to mathematical concepts such as mean, expected values, and more.

This basic training scenario includes information about fictional farm insurance data; however, the concepts are the same as what would be used with real-world farm or crop insurance policies. This training scenario introduces students to concepts such as probability distributions, expected values, basic statistics, incentives, and other insurance and risk analysis concepts. 

Example Qualifying Scenarios

Qualifying level example scenarios include the same type of questions and similar level of difficulties to what you will see on the qualifying scenarios for this year’s Challenge. Each qualifying scenario includes four levels of questions: (1) Basic statistics and probability, (2) Trends and Relationships, (3) Risk Analysis, and (4) Critical Thinking Recommendations. Try out some of these example scenarios to get a good take on the kinds of questions you’ll need to answer to qualify for the MTF Challenge. If you don’t know some of the questions, don’t worry, perfect answers aren’t required to qualify, just try to learn as much as you can through these examples.

This scenario provides some simple data about three farms that have tracked their annual profits while also tracking basic information about the annual climate. Though the data is fictional, this scenario will give you some foundations on how to think about your full MTF Challenge project.

This scenario includes information about a fictional flood insurance company with policies in 5 states in the mid-west. In this scenario you’ll be able to practice many of the types of questions that will be included in the 2019-20 qualifying scenarios.


The Actuarial Foundation, a 501(c)(3) organization, is the philanthropic organization for the actuarial industry in the United States. The Foundation promotes lifelong math education and financial literacy through its learning resources and scholarships. The Modeling the Future Challenge is managed in partnership with The Institute of Competition Sciences. If you are interested in getting involved as a volunteer or have any questions about registering a team in the competition, contact us using the email or phone below.

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