To be successful in the Modeling the Future Challenge, we recommend following this process to develop and submit your report:
Step 1: Determine Questions
What questions do you need to ask to identify the effects that you hope to model for each section of the report? What variables do you need to know in order to develop your models of how adoption of autonomous vehicle technology will change the transportation, insurance, and society sectors?
Step 2: Identify Data
Once you have identified the questions you hope to address, then identify data sources that may help you create your mathematical models of how self-driving vehicles may impact the future of transportation, insurance, and society at large. We have included multiple recommended data sources in the “Data & References” section of the site, but feel free to identify additional sources through your own research.
Step 3: Model the Change
Using mathematical tools, create your models of how the adoption of self-driving vehicles will impact: (1) transportation, (2) insurance, and (3) society at large in the next 10 years.
Part 1: For the transportation industry section
Your models should analyze change in factors related to the automobile industry. How many autonomous vehicles do you expect to see on the road in the next 10 years? How will this impact automobile accidents (will there be more or less accidents, will they be more or less intense, etc.)? Some other questions you might consider are: How will it change sales of traditional vehicles? How will sales of autonomous vehicles change over time? There can be many different variables and factors that you consider in your model of the future of how autonomous vehicles will impact the transportation industry.
Part 2: For the insurance industry section
Your model should examine how policies will need to change to adapt to the changing transportation industry. In this section, you might consider the following questions: Will more or less policies be sold each year? How large will the policies need to be? What is the expected change in claim size based on the expected change in accident frequency and intensity due to adoption of autonomous vehicles? Use these questions and others to project how insurance companies can respond to the changes expected from adoption of autonomous vehicles.
Part 3: For the society at large section
Your model should identify one area of society (outside of transportation and insurance) that will be affected by the adoption of autonomous vehicles over the next 10 years. Questions you might consider include: Will autonomous vehicles change work productivity due to longer commute times? Will they change unemployment levels due to the loss of taxi-driver, truck-driver, or other jobs? Will they change the amount and structure of public spaces in cities or communities due to the changing number of vehicles and parking requirements? Using the available data and your own mathematical models to identify these changes, select one sector of society in which you believe you can define how it will change the most accurately, and include that in your report.
Step 4: Write the Report
Once you’ve created your mathematical models and identified the ways in which you expect the autonomous vehicle industry to change the three areas (transportation, insurance, and society at large), you’ll be ready to write your report. Make sure to include all the information requested in the Submission Requirements. The more detail you can include about the data and mathematical models you use to come to your conclusions, the better your chances will be of receiving an award in the Modeling the Future Challenge.