The Modeling the Future Challenge is dynamic and complex, but it is wonderfully rewarding for the students who take it on. No one is expected to know everything when they try something new. So we created a set of examples and other resources to help you get started. In this Challenge, as with many aspects of the “real-world,” there is no single correct answer, and no answer is wholly correct on its own. The MTFC is about mathematics, but it is also about logic, reasoning, and critical thinking. This page provides the materials to help you understand, practice, and engage in the process of modeling the future. Two types of training resources are currently available: Basic Training Scenarios, and Example Qualifying Scenarios. Stay tuned for updates when the Project Guide and Theme Worksheets that will help guide you through specific parts of this year’s MTF Challenge projects!

Basic Training Scenarios

Basic training scenarios provide a set of entry level questions to introduce fundamental ideas related to data analysis, risk management, insurance, and other actuarial concepts. Each scenario takes a layered approach to engaging with the content where first questions are the most simple get progressively more complex. To help get started with modeling the future, check out these introductory scenarios!

This scenario helps introduce you to calculating expected values, understanding mean values, standard deviations, basic probabilities, exploring mathematical logic, critical thinking & problem solving, and other insurance and risk analysis basics like deductibles, premiums, loss ratio, and more. The scenario is set in a situation many of us understand too well – replacing a broken phone!

This scenario introduces many of the fundamental insurance, risk management, and decision making concepts that actuaries use everyday. The scenario takes place in the same setting as your 2019-20 MTF Challenge project – the American agricultural industry and uses basic real-world information from the Federal Crop Insurance Company.

Example Qualifying Scenarios

Qualifying level example scenarios include the same type of questions and similar level of difficulties to what you will see on the qualifying scenarios for this year’s Challenge. Each qualifying scenario includes four levels of questions: (1) Basic statistics and probability, (2) Trends and Relationships, (3) Risk Analysis, and (4) Critical Thinking Recommendations. Try out some of these example scenarios to get a good take on the kinds of questions you’ll need to answer to qualify for the MTF Challenge. If you don’t know some of the questions, don’t worry, perfect answers aren’t required to qualify, just try to learn as much as you can through these examples.

This scenario provides some simple data about three farms that have tracked their annual profits while also tracking basic information about the annual climate. Though the data is fictional, this scenario will give you some foundations on how to think about your full MTF Challenge project.

This scenario includes information about a fictional flood insurance company with policies in 5 states in the mid-west. In this scenario you’ll be able to practice many of the types of questions that will be included in the 2019-20 qualifying scenarios.


The Actuarial Foundation, a 501(c)(3) organization, is the philanthropic organization for the actuarial industry in the United States. The Foundation promotes lifelong math education and financial literacy through its learning resources and scholarships. The Modeling the Future Challenge is managed in partnership with The Institute of Competition Sciences. If you are interested in getting involved as a volunteer or have any questions about registering a team in the competition, contact us using the email or phone below.

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