This season’s Modeling the Future Challenge brought together some of the most creative and analytical young minds from across the United States, challenging them to use math modeling and data science to address real-world problems and predict the future. It’s always exciting to see the remarkable range of topics these students address, and this year’s competition was no exception! From the opioid epidemic, to climate-driven bird migrations, to urban heat islands, MTFC teams brought their A-game with selecting unique and relevant issues to address.
Though all our Finalists put together some incredible projects through months of rigorous research and analysis, only four teams could be recognized as this year’s winners during the Closing Ceremony!
Join us in celebrating these outstanding teams, as well as other standout honorees from this year’s challenge.
1st Place: The Unit Vector
Project Phase Region: Northeast, Hosted by Trine University, Regional Sponsor – American Academy of Actuaries
School: Stevenson High School, Lincolnshire, IL
Student Winner: Shreyas Dandavate
Coach: Ken Heard
Project Title: An Overdose of Overdoses: A County-level Risk Analysis of Fatal Drug Overdoses in America and Relevant Solutions
Since 1999, nearly 1 million Americans have died from drug overdoses. The Unit Vector developed a county-level predictive model to identify regions at high or low risk for overdose mortality. Utilizing ARIMA models and Monte Carlo simulations, Shreyas projected future overdose death trends and calculated the resulting monetary losses.
In addition to forecasting, the project offered critical policy recommendations. These included strategies for social and private insurance companies to improve outcomes and a proposal to implement Take Home Naloxone programs in high-risk counties—potentially saving lives and millions in healthcare costs.
2nd Place: Pose 28💃🏽👺💋
Project Phase Region: Southeast, Hosted by Auburn University
School: Alabama School of Fine Arts, Birmingham, AL
Student Winners: Dania Alzoubi, Harini Chakilam, Srihansi Sagi, Monisha Bommu, Prisha Sharma
Coach: Cecil Flournoy
Project Title: Avian Tides of Change: Charting Wood Stork Bird Migrations on a Climate-Altered Coastline
Pose 28 💃🏽👺💋 focused on migratory birds, particularly the wood stork, which has faced increasing habitat challenges due to climate change. Since the 1970s, over 3 billion migratory birds have disappeared, and 61% of North American birds have changed their migration patterns.
The team used Kernel Density Estimation to map past migration data and SARIMA models to forecast future temperature and rainfall trends in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina—regions key to the wood stork’s survival. Their risk analysis revealed the threats posed by urbanization and climate change to wetlands, agricultural output, and rural economies. Recommendations included expanding wetland conservation, reducing pesticide use, increasing public awareness, and implementing water management policies to protect ecosystems.
3rd Place: DVS 1
Project Phase Region: Southwest, Hosted by California State University, Fullerton
School: Da Vinci Schools, El Segundo, CA
Student Winners: Zirak Engineer, Gabriel Chavez, Benjamin Chan, Calliope Chan
Coach: Justin Mitchell
Project Title: Modeling the Impact of Chronic Absenteeism in K-12 Education on Academic Outcomes: A Risk-Based Approach
Chronic absenteeism has become a growing concern in U.S. education, rising from 15% pre-pandemic to 28% today. DVS 1 created a comprehensive actuarial model to assess the long-term impacts of absenteeism. Their project featured a K-12 Student Population Model to forecast student counts, a Time Model for predicting return-to-normal attendance rates, a Negative Effects Model quantifying academic performance declines, and an Expected Negative Effects Model that integrated attendance projections with academic outcomes.
Their analysis suggests that absenteeism will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2031 unless significant interventions are implemented. They proposed school-based Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring Systems and targeted support for vulnerable student populations.
4th Place: Da Two Bananas
Project Phase Region: New England, Hosted by Bentley University, Regional Sponsor – Casualty Actuary Society
School: Ward Melville Senior High School, East Setauket, NY
Student Winners: Amanda Liang, Sarah Wu
Coach: Jie Yang
Project Title: Heatwaves and Health Risks in New York City
Heatwaves pose an increasing threat to public health in urban areas like New York City, largely due to the Urban Heat Island Effect. Da Two Bananas assessed the link between extreme heat and ER hospitalizations. Their models projected that if the number of heat-related visits remains constant, future medical costs could range from $70 million to $1.2 billion.
The team proposed mitigation strategies through urban planning, public health policies, and insurance frameworks. Their risk modeling suggests that these strategies could reduce costs by as much as $137 to $286 million.
Climate Resilience Award Winner: Team CalMichMizz
Project Phase Region: Northeast, Hosted by Trine University, Regional Sponsor – American Academy of Actuaries
School: Illinois Mathematics and Science Academy, Inverness, IL
Student Winner: William Guo
Coach: Jenna Lee
Project Title: Urban Heat in Chicago: Modeling Future Risks and Resilience
William Guo’s project focused on the elevated temperatures in Chicago’s urban core, which can be up to 10 degrees higher than surrounding rural areas. With climate change increasing the frequency of heatwaves, Chicagoans face heightened respiratory and heat-related health risks.
William proposed risk mitigation strategies including expanding the city’s tree canopy, implementing green roofs and walls, and adopting cool pavements. As the recipient of the Climate Resilience Award, William will participate in a paid, part-time internship to refine his implementation strategy and present his work to community stakeholders this summer.
Helen Galt Educator Awards
Helen Galt Educator School Support Award:
Channy Cornejo of Santa Teresa High School received the $1,000 Helen Galt Educator School Support Award for having the highest number of Semi-Finalist teams advance to the Project Phase. This award celebrates educators who go above and beyond in supporting their students.
Top Coach Awards:
The coaches of the top four winning teams—Ken Heard (The Unit Vector), Cecil Flournoy (Pose 28 💃🏽👺💋), Justin Mitchell (DVS 1), and Jie Yang (Da Two Bananas)—each received the $1,000 Helen Galt Educator Award for their outstanding mentorship and guidance.
Community Choice Recognition Winner: Team Number Ninja
Project Phase Region: Northeast, Hosted by Trine University, Regional Sponsor – American Academy of Actuaries
School: South Brunswick High School, Monmouth Junction, NJ
Student Winner: Pranav Yogeswaran
Coach: Kurinchi Arumugam
Project Title: Mitigation of Hawaiian Wildfires: A State-Specific Approach through Agricultural Subsidies
Voted on by members of The Actuarial Foundation Board, Challenge sponsors, and professionals in the actuarial community, Team Number Ninja earned this year’s Community Choice Recognition for their engaging video and compelling project. Their work focused on how agricultural subsidies could be tailored to reduce the severity and frequency of wildfires in Hawaii. Pranav will also be featured in an upcoming interview with AM Best to discuss the data-driven methods used in his analysis.
A Final Round of Applause!
We want to take a moment to extend our sincere thanks to all the sponsors, volunteer mentors and judges, and the dedicated coaches who made this competition possible! Your support and expertise were instrumental in helping these students reach their full potential and apply data science to create meaningful solutions.
Additionally, thank you to our Regional Partners—Califnoria State University Fullerton, Trine University, Auburn University, Bentley University, and University of Nebraska – Lincoln—for helping us celebrate these teams from around the country!
The 2024-25 Modeling the Future Challenge showcased the power of mathematical modeling, risk analysis, and youth-led learning. We can’t wait to see what next year’s participants will achieve!
This information has been generated by high school students in connection with a competition sponsored by The Actuarial Foundation and the Institute of Competition Sciences solely for educational purposes and has not been validated, tested or otherwise confirmed and may not be accurate. Accordingly, this information may not be (i) used or relied upon for any reason, (ii) cited or quoted in a way that would imply accuracy, or (iii) presented as fact.