Rules and Eligibility

   

1. Eligibility

  1. Students must have taken or be taking at least one of the following junior or senior level mathematics courses at the time of registration for the MTF Challenge: statistics, calculus, pre-calculus, probability, mathematical modeling, or another junior or senior level mathematics course covering similar material.
  2. Students must be junior or senior level students attending high school in the United States during the 2019-20 school year. *some special exceptions will be made for sophomore level students taking advanced junior or senior level mathematics classes.
  3. Scholarship awards will only be paid to colleges or universities in the United States. If a student wins an award and chooses to attend college outside of the United States they will void their scholarship award.
  4. Students may be in any type of schooling; formal, informal, home-schooled, etc.
  5. Students must be no older than 19 years old by December 31st, 2019.
  6. Teams may include from one to five students.
  7. Each student or team of students submitting to the challenge must have an adult “coach” noted on the submission. Coaches can be any adult, 18+ years old.

2. Qualification

  1. All teams must qualify for the main MTFC Project Phase by successfully passing a Scenario Response Topic.
  2. Teams will be presented with 3 Scenarios, but are only required to submit 1 to qualify.
  3. Scenarios will be reviewed on a rolling basis. Teams that submit a scenario response early will be reviewed first and will be notified of their qualification status at that time. 
  4. Teams who submit one scenario early but do not pass, may submit a second (and third) scenario to attempt to pass up until the end of the qualification period.
  5. Scenarios will include 4 levels of questions: (1) Mathematical Basics, (2) Projecting Trends, and (3) Risk analysis, and (4) Recommendations.
  6. Teams will be recognized for passing each of the 4 levels of questions. Teams that pass each level of the scenario response phase will be recognized as Level 1, Level 2, Level 3, or Level 4 “Modeling the Future Scholars” respectively. To qualify for the MTFC Project Phase, teams must pass all 4 levels of scenario response questions. 
  7. The qualification requirement is to earn at least an 80% score on each level of scenario questions.

3. Project Submission

  1. Project reports must be submitted electronically through the Institute of Competition Sciences’ web portal, noted on the Registration and Submission page of this website.
  2. Project reports must be submitted by the Project Phase deadline noted in the program timeline.
  3. Project reports must be submitted in either Microsoft Word or PDF format.
  4. Project reports must be no more than 25 pages long and must include the following sections:
    1.  Title Page (not included in page count): 
      1. Include the project title, date of submission, and the statement, “2019-20 Modeling the Future Challenge Project Report”
      2.  Do not include any identifying information other than your team ID# on your title page, or other pages of your report.
    2. Introductory Sections (3 pages max):
      1. Executive Summary. A one page write up summarizing the key points of the material in the report.
      2. Background Information. A section that describes information about the theme of the report and includes background information on what is known about the topic and datasets.
    3. Modeling Sections (12 pages max):
      1.  Data Methodology. Descriptions of what data was used and why.
      2. Mathematics Methodology. Descriptions of how the mathematical model was developed, what is the model, what math was used to project the future trends.
      3. Results. Descriptions of the resulting analysis from the model. What were the results of how the data projects future trends? What are the probabilities, likelihoods, etc. of what will change in the future based on the model?
    4.  Analysis Sections (10 pages max):
      1. Risk Analysis. Description of what risks may be associated with the projected changes in the future. What organizations may be at risk? Why? And How? What are the risks, can they be quantified based on the projections from the model? Risks should be specific and should be quantitative not just qualitative in nature.
      2. Recommendations. Description of how the organizations with risks associated with the projected changes could best adapt to the changes. How can the organizations either (1) best mitigate the risks (i.e. changes to insurance policies, government regulations, or corporate procedures), or (2) create opportunity from the projected changes. The Recommendations section should include information regarding how both insurance and public policy changes could be used to help respond to the risks.
    5. References (not included in page count)

3. Project Evaluation

  1. Project evaluation is conducted by a committee of actuaries following a judging rubric.
  2. All teams completing a full MTFC Project Report will receive an evaluation report detailing information from their scores and feedback.
  3. Evaluation of the judging committee is final.
  4. Between 10 and 20 teams will be selected by the MTFC Judging Committee as Finalists and brought to the Modeling the Future Symposium to present and compete for the final awards. The number of teams selected as finalists is dependent upon funding.

4. Symposium & Finalist Team Presentations

  1. Finalist teams will be notified via email on the date noted in the timeline page of this website that they have been selected to compete for the final awards.
  2. The Modeling the Future Symposium will be held in April of 2020. Exact dates are noted in the timeline page of this website.
  3. Finalist teams will receive financial support covering travel for up to 5 students,and 1 teacher/coach including economy class airfare and up to 4 hotel rooms for the duration of the Symposium.

     

  4. Symposium schedules, activities, and presentation details will be provided to finalist teams upon their announcement as finalists.

5. Awards

Qualifying Phase Awards:

  1. Modeling the Future Scholar Level 1: For all teams that pass level 1 scenario response questions (basic statistics and probability), each student will be provided with an electronic certificate recognizing them as a “Modeling the Future Scholar: Level 1”
  2. Modeling the Future Scholar Level 2: For all teams that pass level 2 scenario response questions (projecting trends), each student will be provided with an electronic certificate recognizing them as a “Modeling the Future Scholar: Level 2”
  3. Modeling the Future Scholar Level 3: For all teams that pass level 3 scenario response questions (risk analysis and insurance), each student will be provided with an electronic certificate recognizing them as a “Modeling the Future Scholar: Level 3”
  4. Modeling the Future Scholar Level 4: For all teams that pass level 4 scenario response questions (critical thinking recommendations), each student will be provided with an electronic certificate recognizing them as a “Modeling the Future Scholar: Level 4”. Each team passing all 4 levels of a qualifying scenario will also qualify for the MTFC Project Phase, and be eligible to compete for the finalist and scholarship awards.

Project Phase Awards:

  1. Modeling the Future Challenge: Semi-Finalist Award. Each team that completes an MTFC project report that is judged to meet Semi-Finalist criteria in the scoring rubric will be recognized with a mailed or in-person certificate ceremony recognizing them as “Modeling the Future Challenge Semi-Finalists.” These teams will also be provided an in-class meeting with an actuary to review team projects and the actuarial profession (in-person where possible, otherwise virtual meeting).
  2. Modeling the Future Challenge: Finalist Award. Each team that completes an MTFC project report that is judged to meet Finalist criteria in the scoring rubric will be recognized with a mailed or in-person certificate ceremony recognizing them as “Modeling the Future Challenge Finalists.” These teams will also be provided an in-class meeting with an actuary to review team projects and the actuarial profession (in-person where possible, otherwise virtual meeting). Additionally, all finalist teams will be invited to present at the MTF Symposium and compete for the Championship scholarship awards. Teams will be provided travel to the MTF Symposium for up to 5 students, and 1 teacher/coach including:
    1. Economy class airfare
    2. Up to 4 hotel rooms for the duration of the Symposium.
    3. Opportunity to participate in the national MTF Symposium and present to the live panel of actuary judges for the MTF Championship awards.
  3.  School Engagement Award: the school with the highest number of semi-finalist or finalist teams will be provided a $1,000 grant to support their mathematics program. 

Finalist Presentation Phase:

  1. Modeling the Future Challenge 4th Place Champion
    1. In person certificates
    2. $5,000 Scholarship Award
    3. $1,000 Educator Award
  2. Modeling the Future Challenge 3rd Place Champion
    1. In person certificates
    2. $10,000 scholarship award
    3. $1,000 Educator Award
  3. Modeling the Future Challenge 2nd Place Champion
    1. In person certificates
    2. $15,000 Scholarship Award
    3. $1,000 Educator Award
    4. Paper submitted for publication to Actuarial Research Clearing House (ARCH) – a publication sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Education and Research Section. ARCH is an informal communication providing current actuarial research to friends and members of the actuarial community. Its primary goal is the speedy dissemination of current thinking and aids to research.
  4. Modeling the Future Challenge 1st Place Grand Champion
    1. In person certificates
    2. $25,000 Scholarship Award
    3. $1,000 Educator Award
    4. Paper submitted for publication to Actuarial Research Clearing House (ARCH) – a publication sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Education and Research Section. ARCH is an informal communication providing current actuarial research to friends and members of the actuarial community. Its primary goal is the speedy dissemination of current thinking and aids to research.
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