How It Works

How It Works

Get your hands dirty with real-world data analysis! The Actuarial Foundation is challenging high school students to make the best recommendations to companies,  organizations, or government agencies based on their own mathematical modeling of future trends and risk analysis. Top teams are invited to compete for a $60,000 prize purse at the annual Modeling the Future Symposium! The Modeling the Future Challenge (MTFC) is a three-phase competition for high school students. Teams must first pass through a qualifying scenario by answering a set of questions related to a real-world data-set. Then, all qualified teams conduct a research and analysis project about a topic of their choice within the annual theme. Finally, teams selected from a review of their reports are invited to the national Modeling the Future Symposium to present their research to the panel of actuary judges who evaluate the teams for the scholarship awards – a $60,000 award purse! Make sure to check the Timeline for specific milestones and due dates.


1. Qualification Scenarios

Teams of 1 to 5 high school students are provided a real-world scenario with a data-set they must analyze to help them answer questions in four levels: (1) Basic mathematics, (2) Projecting trends, (3) Risk Analysis, and (4) Critical thinking recommendations. All teams that pass the four levels of questions will qualify for the MTFC Project Phase. See the Resources page for more information.

2. Project Reports

Once your team has qualified, you will be entered into the main project phase of the challenge. Each qualified team is matched with an actuarial mentor to provide high-level guidance on their project. Mentors meet virtually with teams twice during the project period. 

To complete your project, you will work through four high-level steps: 

  1. (1) Conduct background research on the annual theme to select your project topic and understand the data available,
  2. (2) Create mathematical models to project trends based on the correlations, statistics and probabilities you analyze,
  3. (3) Analyze future risks to determine the severity, frequency, and likelihood of potential losses, and
  4. (4) Make recommendations to the organizations involved. For specific tips and guidance on each step of your project review the Project Guide on the Resources page.

The Project Guide provided in the resources section provides specific details and tips for completing your report. Make sure to review this guide in depth before moving forward on your MTFC project.

3. Symposium Presentations

Teams selected as finalists will have additional time to update their project report and to prepare a live presentation for the Modeling the Future Challenge Symposium. At the Symposium you will meet other like-minded students, mix with professional actuaries, explore the exciting host city, and compete for the final MTFC scholarship awards!

Modeling the Future Challenge registration opens in September. Stay tuned to the email newsletter for updates on important information and deadlines.


The Actuarial Foundation, a 501(c)(3) organization, is the philanthropic organization for the actuarial industry in the United States. The Foundation promotes lifelong math education and financial literacy through its learning resources and scholarships. The Modeling the Future Challenge is managed in partnership with The Institute of Competition Sciences. If you are interested in getting involved as a volunteer or have any questions about registering a team in the competition, contact us using the email or phone below.

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