The Modeling the Future Challenge is designed to be completed during the academic year. Preparing over the summer does not put any team at an advantage and is NOT required.
Are you ready to participate in the Modeling the Future Challenge once registration opens in the Fall and want to get a head start on familiarizing yourself with the Challenge over the summer? Then start here! While the preparing over the summer is completely OPTIONAL and each year of the Challenge brings updates to specific phases and submission items, you can begin to familiarize yourself with the Challenge structure, the 5 Steps of the Actuarial Process, and the resources available.
1: Familiarize Yourself With the Challenge Structure
Challenge Structure
Modeling the Future Challenge is structured into three phases. Teams who successfully advance to the Final Phase compete for the scholarships!
- Scenario Phase (Fall): All teams complete the same Scenario Quest in the Fall and propose a risk modeling project on a topic of their choice.
- Project Phase (Winter): Semi-Finalist Teams complete their risk modeling projects on a topic of their choice with virtual support from experienced actuarial volunteers.
- Finalist Phase (Spring): Finalist teams compete for the scholarships and participate in the National Symposium with live judging Q&A sessions.
Challenge Overview
What is the MTFC and how is the Actuarial Process connected to creating a robust risk analysis project? In this video, MTFC mentor, judge, and Challenge Development Committee Member Steve Alpert overviews the MTFC and how each component of the 5 steps of the Actuarial Process is essential to your MTFC risk analysis projects.
Scenario Phase Success
Past MTFC Participants who served as Challenge Ambassadors share some of their best tips with you. Check out their advice for success in the Scenario Phase!
Tips for Completing the Scenario Quest
Brainstorming Your Project Topic
Tips for Creating an Effective Project Proposal
Tackling the Project
Proposal
Project Phase Preparation
Past MTFC Participants who served as Challenge Ambassadors share some of their best tips with you. These videos from Challenge Ambassadors include their advice for Semi-Finalists who advance from the Scenario Phase into the Project Phase.
Collaboration Tips and
Tricks
Refining Your Project
Topic
Setting Your Team Up for Success in the Project Phase
From the Scenario Phase to the Project Phase
2: Familiarize Yourself With the 5 Steps of the Actuarial Process
Actuarial Process Guide
The Actuarial Process Guide (APG) is the primary resource for the Modeling the Future Challenge. Reading through the APG early is a great way to orient to the Challenge.
The Actuarial Process is the fundamental 5-step framework that lays out the core structure of how to successfully identify, analyze, and manage risks upon which the Modeling the Future Challenge is built. It extends your mathematics and science knowledge into the world of data analysis and risk management. To be great at navigating the choppy waters of the future, you must be great at managing risks. No matter what your interests or career aspirations, you’ll want to understand how the Actuarial Process can be used anytime you’re in a situation where you need to make a decision involving uncertain outcomes. Following the Actuarial Process will help you become successful at identifying, characterizing, and managing risks in all aspects of your life, no matter your interests or career.
The Actuarial Process
Challenge Ambassadors share some of their best tips for navigating particular steps of the Actuarial Process.
Mathematical Models
Looking for Data
All About Data
Creating Visualizations
What is Risk?
This video explains the relation between risk, causes and effects. A hard to grasp risk management concept in general and especially useful during risk assessment sessions to explain the risk sequence to participants.
Resource Library
The MTFC Resource Library has TONS of free resources for each step of the Actuarial Process. Check out the resources in the individual steps to orient to the key concepts in that step, access resources (particularly data resources as you explore a topic of your choice), and work towards making actionable recommendations for mitigating risk as a result of your analysis.
Key Concepts
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3: Prepare for the Scenario Quest
Previous Scenario Quests
Now that you’ve oriented to the structure and resources of the Modeling the Future Challenge, check out a prior Scenario Quest! The Scenario Quest is a closed scenario where you do NOT need to seek out other data to respond to the prompts.
Each year’s Scenario Quest is updated on the topic, prompts, structure, rubric, and other requirements. However, the structure within the 5 steps of the Actuarial Process will be consistent with each year’s Scenario Quest. Read through the context, check out the attached dataset, and attempt responding to the prompts. Once you’ve attempted, check out sample responses in the Key document.
4: Prepare for the Project Proposal
Brainstorm Your Topic
While every Scenario Quest is unique to the particular Challenge year and all teams complete the same Scenario Quest topic, the Project Proposal is where you get to choose and propose your own topic that you’ll explore in the Project Phase. Ready to start brainstorming a topic for your eventual Project Proposal? Check out this brainstorming activity and a sample project proposal.
