Submission Requirements

Starting with the 2018-2019 competition, the Modeling the Future Challenge will have three phases. In phase one students must respond to a series of scenarios that will be posted online. The Challenge Scenario Topics are posted online along with two example scenarios with answer keys.

Semi-Finalist Report Requirements

All teams that qualify as semi-finalists from the initial phase of the challenge are required to submit a report that must identify at least one way the team expects a recently released or expected upcoming treatment of a disease or illness will change the future. Teams must characterize that change through mathematical models, and make recommendations on how organizations affected by the change should respond to it. Teams must use data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) in their analysis (along with any other data or information they find relevant.

Report Structure:

  • Be no more than 20 pages (not including references).
  • Include an executive Summary (1 page max)
  • Include a technology overview section (3 pages max)
  • Include a data methodology section (2 pages max)
  • Include a mathematics methodology section (4 pages max)
  • Include a results section (6 pages max)
  • Include a Conclusions and Recommendations Section (4 pages max)
  • Include a references list following the APA or Harvard citation structure.

Each report should be able to answer these questions:

  • What is the severity of the change expected? How big will the change be?
  • What is the frequency the change expected? How many people will this affect and how?
  • What is the timing of the change expected? When will it take place?
  • What data was used to make the mathematical models? Why was it used? Why is it relevant?
  • What mathematical models were created to characterize the expected change? What do the models show?
  • What recommendations would the team make to organizations affected by this change? The team should be able to identify one or more groups that will be affected by this change and make recommendations on how to respond to it.