The three Scenario Response Topics included below are the official scenarios for the 2018-19 Modeling the Future Challenge. Each scenario requires some mathematical tasks along with data analysis and critical thinking questions. Before solving these scenarios we recommend that you also review the two example scenarios that have been posted on the Examples and Documentation page. All team submissions for the scenario response topics MUST be uploaded on your MTF Challenge team page in the ICS Competition Management Dashboard. Each team must have already been registered for the competition by 11/11/2018 in order to be eligible to submit.
When working on your scenario responses, also remember these simple tips:
- Perfect scores are not required to qualify. If your team doesn’t answer all 10 questions correctly in a scenario, don’t fret! Perfect scores are not a requirement to qualify for the main research and report phase of the MTF Challenge. The Scenario Response topics ask a wide range of questions with varying levels of difficulty; however, we do not expect that for teams to be successful in the research and report, they need to have all answers to all types of questions. So if you aren’t certain about a few questions on the scenarios, answer what you know as well as you can, and you’ll get feedback on what else you might want to pick up for your report.
- In the Challenge, only 2 out of 3 Scenarios are required. The MTF Challenge includes three Scenario Response topics; however, teams only need to complete passing responses to two of the scenarios. In other words, your top two scores will be considered. We encourage all teams to still complete all three scenarios to see which ones you score the best on, but if you’re really pressed for time, completing two could still get you through to the main research & report phase.
- Don’t worry about a specific methodology. In the answer keys we present straight-forward methodologies to determine the answers; however, these may not be the only methodologies to come to a correct response. So long as you show logical reasoning and how you got to the correct response, it will be counted. You do not need to have the exact methodology that we note in the answer keys.
- Consider each scenario as an opportunity for practice and feedback. More than anything, the MTF Challenge’s Scenario Response topics are meant to help prepare you for how to create strong mathematical models analyzing data to project future trends. They are not attempting to create “gotcha” moments. Try your best, answer what you can, and look forward to the feedback and responses to inform how you create your models and report for the main competition – or to prepare you for next year if you aren’t quite ready for the research and report phase this time.
Scenario Response Topic 1: Automobile Insurance.
Scenario 1 Description and Questions – this file includes the background writeup describing the scenario and its data along with the official questions your team must answer for the Challenge.
Scenario 1 Data – this file is an excel spreadsheet including the data that is to be analyzed for this scenario.
Scenario Response Topic 2: Pharmacy Benefit
Scenario 2 Description and Questions – this file includes the background writeup describing the scenario and its data along with the official questions your team must answer for the Challenge.
Scenario 2 Data – this file is an excel spreadsheet including the data that is to be analyzed for this scenario.
Scenario Response Topic 3: Hep C Analysis and Treatment
Scenario 3 Description and Questions – this file includes the background writeup describing the scenario and its data along with the official questions your team must answer for the Challenge. Data for this scenario is linked inside this attachment. Data sources are similar to those in Example Scenario 2 found on the Examples and Documentation page.