Evaluation Process

Evaluation of Modeling the Future Challenge submissions will be done in three rounds. First, a Preliminary Review will be conducted online immediately after the submission deadline. This round will eliminate any submissions that have not adequately completed each section of the report. The second round is the Analytical Review in which a complete analysis of the written report will be conducted.

After this round between 4 and 11 finalists (individuals or teams) will be selected to receive travel grants so they can present their submissions to a live panel of actuary judges at the Modeling the Future Symposium in New York for the third and final round of judging in which first through fourth place teams will be awarded Modeling the Future Scholarships from The Actuarial Foundation.

Round 1: Preliminary Review

During the first round of review, the Judging Committee will evaluate the submissions to determine if they have met all the submission requirements in order to be sent on to the full Judging Committee for review in the second round.

Criteria:

  • Does the submission include all required sections?
  • Does the submission follow provided formatting standards?
  • Does the submission include appropriate mathematical models and analysis?
  • Does the submission appropriately cite all data sources and references?
  • Does the submission identify expected changes in each of the three content areas (transportation industry, insurance industry, and society at large)?
  • Does the submission make conclusions or recommendations on how to respond to these expected changes to improve the future outcome of the adoption of autonomous vehicles over the next 10+ years?

If the submission meets all of these criteria, it will receive a "Pass" and be sent to the Round 2 review. If not, it will receive a "Not Qualified" determination and not receive any further review.

Round 2: Analytical Review

Once a submission has received a pass through the Round 1 review, it will be evaluated on a rubric by 3 or more professionals from the actuarial industry. The top scoring submissions that meet an overall baseline score will be recognized as “Modeling the Future Finalists” and awarded travel grants to attend the Modeling the Future Symposium and present their submission to a live panel of judges. Judges will use the official scoring rubric to review all submissions in this round.

Round 3: Finalist Presentation Review

The final review of submissions will only occur for the selected finalists invited to present their report at the Modeling the Future Symposium. This live review will use the same scoring rubric as Round 2 but with additional scrutiny on the analysis and conclusion sections. The student will also be reviewed based on their ability to present the information in a clear and concise manner during the live presentation. Full presentation review criteria and recommendations for the final presentations will be provided to students upon their selection as a finalist.